Section 1: Economic Competitiveness

Appendix F: Technical Report — Data & Research > Section 1: Economic Competitiveness -- 24 pages · pp. 402-425

Intro from p. 402

Section 1: Economic Competitiveness

Section 1: Economic Competitiveness

Contents

See also

Section	PDF pages	Description
[doc] Slide 3: National context informing Oregon’s economic crisis	p. 403	National context informing Oregon’s economic crisis The variable with the most predictive power in the Moody’s recession model is building permits
[doc] Slide 4: High taxes and cost of living are growing concerns in the Metro	p. 404	High taxes and cost of living are growing concerns in the Metro For the first time, most Metro voters feel their economic opportunities are poor, and positive perceptions of economic opportunities are at an all time low Source: DHM, PMC…
[doc] Slide 5: Unemployment rate statewide increasing faster than nationally	p. 405	Unemployment rate statewide increasing faster than nationally Source: Oregon Employment Department
[doc] Slide 6: Oregon lost 9,100 jobs over the past 12 months, 3 county metro lost 16k	p. 406	Oregon lost 9,100 jobs over the past 12 months, 3 county metro lost 16k 14 of 36 counties added jobs in the past 12 months Source: Oregon Employment Department, CES Seasonally Adjusted
[doc] Slide 7: Job growth performance highly sensitive to reference period	p. 407	Job growth performance highly sensitive to reference period State non-farm employment change ranking Source: BLS via FRED
[doc] Slide 8: Oregon’s annual job growth ranking was trending down pre-pandemic, then amplified	p. 408	Oregon’s annual job growth ranking was trending down pre-pandemic, then amplified
[doc] Slide 9: Population growth rate expected to be half of previous 30 year trend	p. 409	Population growth rate expected to be half of previous 30 year trend Forecast Population Decade Growth 1960 16% 1970 24% 1980 6% 1990 16% 2000 11% 2010 10% 2020* 5% *population growth rate include forecast Source: Oregon Office of Economic…
[doc] Slide 10: Oregon population growth has stagnated in past decade compared to U.S.	p. 410	Oregon population growth has stagnated in past decade compared to U.S.
[doc] Slide 11: Full time worker median wages in Oregon growing faster than U.S.	p. 411	Full time worker median wages in Oregon growing faster than U.S.
[doc] Slide 12: Gap in median income in Oregon is primarily a structural gap from less full-time work	p. 412	Gap in median income in Oregon is primarily a structural gap from less full-time work
[doc] Slide 13: Statewide net loss of $500 million in income through migration in last 2 years	p. 413	Statewide net loss of $500 million in income through migration in last 2 years Source: IRS SOI
[doc] Slide 14: Oregon’s income trajectory was similar to Rust Belt states through 2010	p. 414	Oregon’s income trajectory was similar to Rust Belt states through 2010
[doc] Slide 15: ALICE data represent HHs not earning enough to cover basic necessities	p. 415	ALICE data represent HHs not earning enough to cover basic necessities
[doc] Slide 16: Oregon’s GDP growth has typically exceed the national rate until the past 3 years	p. 416	Oregon’s GDP growth has typically exceed the national rate until the past 3 years
[doc] Slide 17: Current productivity in Oregon lags the national average by 12%	p. 417	Current productivity in Oregon lags the national average by 12% Source: BEA, U.S. Census PEP
[doc] Slide 18: Oregon’s productivity growth has been eroding since peaking from 2015 to 2018	p. 418	Oregon’s productivity growth has been eroding since peaking from 2015 to 2018
[doc] Slide 19: Productivity is a combined measure of both population and GDP change	p. 419	Productivity is a combined measure of both population and GDP change
[doc] Slide 20: Single family permitting statewide unchanged from pre-pandemic	p. 420	Single family permitting statewide unchanged from pre-pandemic Oregon Statewide Permitting 12 month trailing average compared to Pre-pandemic Annual average from 2017 to 2019 Single Family 97% Total 71% Multifamily 44% Source: HUD SOCDS
[doc] Slide 21: No Market rate projects over 50 units in Portland Central City	p. 421	No Market rate projects over 50 units in Portland Central City City of Portland Multifamily Permitting Multifamily Permits in 2025 (through December 2025) Number of Units Source: City of Portland, Bureau of Planning and Sustainability
[doc] Slide 22: Oregon has the largest multifamily permitting decrease, entirely a Portland effect	p. 422	Oregon has the largest multifamily permitting decrease, entirely a Portland effect State multifamily housing permitting in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic average Source: U.S. Census Bureau SOCDS
[doc] Slide 23: State expenditures have increased 4x since 2001	p. 423	State expenditures have increased 4x since 2001 $37.4 $11. 4 4 Source: Common Sense Institute, State of Oregon
[doc] Slide 24: General fund is 85% reliant on personal income, decreasing as a share of total expenses	p. 424	General fund is 85% reliant on personal income, decreasing as a share of total expenses 2025-27 General Funds/Lottery Funds Budget Education $15.7bn $30.2bn Personal Income Taxes Since 2001, the general fund share of Total Resources…
[doc] Slide 25: Oregon ranks near the top of expenditures and own source revenue as a share of personal income	p. 425	Oregon ranks near the top of states in state and local expenditures and own-source revenue as a share of personal income. In 2022, Oregon's combined state-local expenditures (including federal transfers) represented 24.7% of personal income, while own-source revenue (excluding federal transfers) ranked 44th nationally at 30.4% of personal income.