07. DHM Research — 2026 Legislative Voter Survey (for OBI)
07. DHM Research — 2026 Legislative Voter Survey (for OBI)
503.220.0575 310 N State St, Suite 216 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 www.dhmresearch.com January 30, 2026 To: Angela Wilhelms and Preston Mann, Oregon Business & Industry From: John Horvick and Tony Iaccarino, DHM Research Re: OBI 2026 Legislative Survey Executive Summary SURVEY METHODOLOGY This mixed-mode survey, combining phone and text-to-online approaches, engaged 600 registered Oregon voters across the state. The sample size enables comprehensive analysis of voter opinions overall and across demographic subgroups. Statistical weighting by age, gender, race, education level, income, party affiliation, and area ensures that results accurately represent the registered voter population. The margin of error for the full sample is 4.0%. Due to rounding, some totals may differ by 1 from the sum of individual responses. KEY FINDINGS • Voters are pessimistic about the direction of the state. Only 26% say the state is heading in the right direction, with positivity remaining stubbornly low since 2021. Most voters say the problems facing the state are getting worse: 85% saying cost of living and 77% say housing affordability are worsening. • Elected leaders get low ratings for job performance. 64% disapprove of Governor Tina Kotek’s job performance, 64% disapprove of the Oregon Legislature’s performance, and 55% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance. • Economic outlook is poor and Oregonians are struggling to get by. 73% rate Oregon’s current economic conditions as poor, an increase from 60% in 2021. 68% say conditions are getting worse, an increase from 62% over the same period. Nearly half have difficulties paying for essentials like groceries, healthcare, utility bills, auto insurance, and home mortgage or rent. • Voters blame high taxes and excessive regulations for Oregon’s sluggish economy. 52% think Oregon’s economic growth rate is slower than the national average, 42% about the same, and 4% faster. Asked to explain the slow growth, 23% mention high taxes and 21% mention excessive regulations. No other reasons are cited as often. • Voters favor a pro-growth strategy to tackle upcoming state budget deficits. 52% prefer reducing regulations and creating incentives to spur economic growth, jobs, and tax revenue. 27% support spending cuts, and 12% favor raising taxes to fully fund programs. Voters favor the first approach, regardless of party affiliation. VOTER SENTIMENT Positivity about the direction of the state remains low. Only 26% say the state is heading in the right direction. Positivity has remained low, hovering below 40% since 2021. Partisanship shapes outlook, with only 5% of Republican and 23% of NAV/Other voters saying the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 46% of Democratic voters. Still, even among Democratic voters, fewer than half are positive about the direction of the state.
Asked to articulate in their own words the most important problem facing the state, voters most often mention issues related to government and leadership. While homelessness is mentioned by 21% of voters as the single- biggest problem in the state, the following issues, taken together, are mentioned by 50% of voters: government mismanagement (13%), taxes and tariffs (13%), Democratic leadership (12%), Republican leadership (7%), and budget cuts (5%). Voters say key problems are getting worse. Most see the following problems as worsening: overall cost of living (85%), housing affordability (77%), homelessness (67%), access to affordable healthcare (65%), quality of K-12 education (61%), availability of quality jobs (54%), and the condition of streets, roads, and highways (53%). Consider: • Slide 1: “Positivity about the direction of the state remains low and has declined since 2025.” (showing right direction trends) • Slide 2: “Perceptions about the direction of the state are partisan, with NAV/Other voters and Republicans less optimistic.” (showing right direction by party) • Slide 3: “When asked to identify Oregon’s most important problem, voters most often point to political issues, followed by social and economic issues.” (showing categories of most important problems) • Slide 4: “Taken together, political issues such as government mismanagement, taxes, tariffs, political leadership, and funding are viewed as the state’s biggest problems.” (showing breakdown of the state’s most important problems) • Slide 5: “When it comes to key problems facing Oregon, most say the problems—especially cost of living and housing affordability—have been getting worse in recent years.” (showing better, same, or worse on key problems) JOB APPROVAL AND UPCOMING ELECTIONS Voters disapprove of the job performance of their elected leaders. 64% disapprove of Governor Kotek’s performance, 64% disapprove of the Oregon Legislature’s performance, and 55% disapprove of President Trump’s performance. While partisanship shapes perceptions of job performance, Republicans are more approving of their leaders than Democrats: 88% of Republicans approve of President Trump’s performance while 63% of Democrats approve of Governor Kotek’s performance. If state legislative elections were today, voters are divided on who they would vote for in their districts. 45% would vote for the Republican Party candidate and 42% would vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Here too, there is stronger support among Republicans (92%) for their own party candidates than among Democrats for their own (75%), with NAV/Other voters leaning Republican (42%). Consider: • Slide 6: “Voters disapprove of the job performance of Governor Kotek, the Oregon Legislature, and President Trump.” (showing job performance ratings) • Slide 7: “Democratic approval of Governor Kotek is softer than Republican approval of President Trump.” (showing approval ratings by party) • Slide 8: “If the election were today, voters are divided on who they would vote for in their district.” (showing overall preference for legislative candidates) 2 | DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
• Slide 9: “Democratic support for Democratic candidates is softer than Republican support for Republican candidates.” (showing preference by party) ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Voters are pessimistic about Oregon’s economy and are struggling to make ends meet. 73% rate Oregon’s economic conditions as poor, an increase from 60% in 2021. Only 20% rate the economy as good. These ratings are shared across region and income levels, with a minimum of 70% of voters in the Portland metro area, Willamette Valley, and the rest of the state rating conditions as poor; along with a minimum of 69% across all income groups. Partisan ratings are more mixed, with 89% of Republicans, 74% of NAV/Other voters, and 58% of Democrats rating the state’s economy as poor. 68% of voters say economic conditions in Oregon are getting worse, an increase from 62% in 2021. 27% say economic conditions are staying the same. Only 2% say they are getting better. Voters are more likely to blame Governor Kotek than either President Trump or the Oregon Legislature for the state’s worsening economic conditions. Among those who say economic conditions are getting worse, 43% blame Governor Kotek, while 29% blame President Trump, and 22% blame state legislators. Democrats are more likely to blame Governor Kotek than Republicans are to blame Trump: 14% of Democrats blame Governor Kotek, while only 2% of Republicans hold President Trump responsible. Roughly half the state’s voters say it’s difficult to pay for basic expenses. 51% find it difficult to pay for groceries, 46% for healthcare, 46% for home energy bills, 44% for auto insurance, and 43% for home mortgage or rent. Lower-income and middle-income voters have the greatest difficulty paying for basic expenses, with a minimum of 50% across both income levels reporting difficulties. For voters in low-income households earning less than $50,000, 70% say it’s difficult to pay for groceries. Consider: • Slide 10: “Most voters currently rate economic conditions in Oregon as poor. The negative outlook has increased since 2021.” (showing OBI survey ratings over time) • Slide 11: “Most groups rate Oregon’s economic conditions as poor. Partisanship shapes perceptions of the economy.” (showing 2026 ratings by area, party, and income) • Slide 12: “Most voters say economic conditions in Oregon are getting worse.” (showing OBI survey outlook over time) • Slide 13: “Voters are more likely to back Governor Kotek for Oregon’s worsening economic conditions.” (showing who to blame) • Slide 14: “More Democrats blame Governor Kotek than Republicans blame Trump, with NAV/Other voters more likely to blame Governor Kotek.” (showing blame by party) • Slide 15: “About half of voters have difficulties paying basic expenses.” (showing difficulty in various areas) • Slide 16: “Middle-income and lower-income voters have the most difficulty paying basic expenses.” (showing difficulty by income level) ECONOMIC GROWTH Voters say the state’s economic growth rate is slower than the national average and blame high taxes and excessive regulations. 52% say the growth rate is slower than the national average, 42% say it’s about the 3 | DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
same, and 4% say it’s faster. Asked to explain in their own words why growth has been slower, 44% of voters mention either high taxes (23%) or excessive regulations (21%). No other reasons are mentioned as often. Consider: • Slide 17: “Most voters believe Oregon’s economic growth rate is slower than the national average. They prefer it to be faster.” (showing assessment of growth rate v. preference for growth rate) • Slide 18: “More than 4 in 10 voters point to high taxes and excessive regulations as the main reasons for the state’s slow economic growth. Nearly 1 in 5 blame Democratic leaders.” (showing open-ended explanations) TAXES AND REGULATIONS Voters think businesses in Oregon are over-taxed and over-regulated. 56% of voters think taxes on businesses in Oregon are too high. 16% say they are about right. Only 9% think they are too low. Republicans (87%) are more likely than Democrats (28%) to think business taxes are too high, with NAV/Other voters (58%) more likely to agree with Republicans. When it comes to issues like the environment, health, and workplace, 46% of voters think businesses are over- regulated, compared to 27% who think businesses are regulated about right, and only 15% who think they are under-regulated. Republicans (76%) and NAV/Other voters (49%) are more likely than Democrats (21%) to share the view that businesses are over-regulated. 93% of voters believe businesses simply pass along tax and regulatory costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. 76% believe Oregon should pause any new regulations until businesses have time to meet new requirements and to learn whether they are working—a belief that has remained consistent since 2021. Consider: • Slide 19: “Voters think business taxes in Oregon are too high. Views are partisan, with a majority of NAV/Other voters agreeing with Republicans that taxes are too high.” (showing overall view and partisan view) • Slide 20: “A plurality of voters think businesses are over-regulated on issues related to the environment, health, and workplace. Here too a similar pattern is evident.” (showing overall view and partisan view) • Slide 21: “Nearly all voters believe businesses pass the cost of taxes and regulations onto consumers.” (showing this belief) • Slide 22: “Voter preference for pausing new regulations until they are proven effective has remained consistent since 2021.” (showing preference over time) A PATH FORWARD Voters prefer a pro-growth strategy to address pending state budget deficits. When provided with a set of options to address Oregon’s budget deficit, 52% prefer reducing regulations and creating incentives for economic growth to increase tax revenue through more jobs and higher wages. 27% prefer reducing spending to match available revenue. 12% prefer raising taxes to ensure programs and services remain fully funded. Regardless of party affiliation, voters prefer a pro-growth strategy to address deficits. 56% of NAV/Other voters, 53% of Republicans, and 46% of Democrats think this approach should be the priority for state lawmakers. 4 | DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Democrats are the least likely to embrace this approach, but they prefer it to other approaches: reducing spending (23%), and raising taxes (17%). Consider: • Slide 23: “To address deficits, voters prefer a third option when provided: reduce regulations and create incentives to drive higher growth, jobs, wages, and tax revenue.” (showing preference and also preference by party) About DHM Research DHM Research is a nonpartisan research firm that specializes in measuring the values and priorities that drive public opinion. Our research provides high-quality, objective information to help organizations and leaders make informed decisions about complex issues. We have decades of experience in polling, public policy research, and how it can help shape communities. DHM is proud to be recognized as a B Corp-certified company that meets rigorous standards of social and environmental performance, accountability, and transparency. About Oregon Business & Industry Oregon Business & Industry (OBI) is a leading business organization. As the statewide chamber of commerce, OBI’s mission is to advocate for policies that create a healthy, prosperous and competitive Oregon for generations to come. OBI is also Oregon’s affiliate for the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Retail Federation. Its member companies, 75% of which are small businesses, employ more than 250,000 Oregonians in a variety of industries and across all of Oregon’s 36 counties. Learn more at www.oregonbusinessindustry.com. 5 | DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Positivity about the direction of the state remains low and has declined since 2025. Right direction 60% 49% 46% 45% 43% 43% 37% 35% 42% 31% 34% 31% 29% 26% 26% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 1 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Perceptions about the direction of the state are partisan, with NAV/Other and Republican voters less optimistic. Right direction 68% 68% 61% 59% 60% 56% 58% 48% 45% 46% Democrat 40% 47% 35% 34% 31% 32% 33% 26% Total 30% 29% 30% 23% NAV/Other 21% 19% 14% 15% 5% Republican '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 2 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
When asked to identify Oregon's most important problem, voters most often point to political issues, followed by social and economic issues. 2% Environment 26% Economic 50% Government 35% & Leadership Social Education & 5% Healthcare 3 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Taken together, political issues such as government mismanagement, taxes, tariffs, political leadership, and funding are viewed as the state’s biggest problems. 2% Environment Cost of living 10% Housing affordability 8% Jobs 8% 13% Government mismanagement 13% Taxes / Tariffs 12% Democratic leaders 7% Republican leaders 21% Homelessness 5% Budget / Funding cuts 5% Drugs, addiction 5% Crime Education 3% 4% Immigration Healthcare 2% 4 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
When it comes to key problems facing Oregon, most voters say the problems—especially cost of living and housing affordability—have been getting worse in recent years. Better Same Worse Overall cost of living 2% 13% 85% Housing affordability 1% 19% 77% Homelessness 7% 24% 67% Access to affordable healthcare 2% 26% 65% Quality of K-12 education 3% 21% 61% Availability of quality jobs 2% 30% 54% Condition of streets, roads, and highways 5% 40% 53% Crime 15% 34% 46% Climate change 8% 41% 36% 5 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Voters disapprove of the job performance of Governor Kotek, the Oregon Legislature, and President Trump. Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Don’t know Governor Kotek 8% 24% 15% 49% 4% Oregon State Legislature 28% 22% 42% 6% President Trump 25% 18% 5% 50% 2% 6 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Democratic approval of Governor Kotek is softer than Republican approval of President Trump. Approval of the job performance of the following people and groups 63% Democrat Governor Kotek 2% Republican 26% NAV/Other 53% The Oregon 8% Legislature 27% 10% President Trump 88% 41% 7 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
If the election for Oregon Legislature were today, voters are divided on who they would vote for in their district. If the election for Oregon Legislature were today, who would you be more likely to vote for in the district where you live? The Democratic Party candidate 42% The Republican Party candidate 45% Don't know 14% 8 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Democratic support for Democratic candidates is softer than Republican support for Republican candidates. NAV/Other voters lean Republican. If the election for Oregon Legislature were today, who would you be more likely to vote for in the district where you live? 75% Democrat The Democratic Party 4% Republican candidate 38% NAV/Other 14% The Republican Party 92% candidate 42% 11% Don't know 4% 21% 9 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Most voters currently rate economic conditions in Oregon as poor. The negative outlook has increased since 2021. How would you rate economic conditions in Oregon today? 73% Poor 65% 60% 35% 32% 20% Good 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 10 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Most groups rate Oregon’s economic conditions as poor. Partisanship shapes perceptions of the economy. % who rate Oregon’s economic conditions as poor AREA Portland Metro 70% Willamette Valley 72% Rest of State 76% PARTY Democrat 58% Republican 89% NAV/Other 74% INCOME <$50k 69% $50k-$100k 75% $100k-$150k 78% $150k+ 71% 11 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Most voters say economic conditions in Oregon are getting worse. Would you say economic conditions in Oregon are getting better, staying the same, or getting worse? 62% 68% Worse 52% 37% 25% 27% Same 9% 9% 2% Better 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 12 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Voters are more likely to blame Governor Kotek for Oregon’s worsening economic conditions. Who do you think is most responsible for Oregon’s economic conditions getting worse? 43% 29% 22% 7% Governor Kotek President Trump Oregon Legislature Don't know n=408 13 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
More Democrats blame Governor Kotek than Republicans blame President Trump, with NAV/Other voters more likely to blame Governor Kotek. Who do you think is most responsible for Oregon’s economic conditions getting worse? % Blame Governor Kotek % Blame President Trump PARTY PARTY Democrat 14% Democrat 58% Republican 73% Republican 2% NAV/Other 43% NAV/Other 27% n=408 14 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
About half of voters have difficulties paying basic expenses. Very easy to pay Very difficult to pay Don’t pay Groceries 19% 30% 32% 18% Healthcare 20% 26% 25% 21% 8% Electric and natural gas bills 19% 29% 31% 15% 5% Auto insurance 18% 32% 30% 13% 5% Home mortgage or rent 15% 27% 29% 14% 15% 15 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Middle-income and lower-income voters have the most difficulty paying basic expenses. % Find it difficult to pay for the following expenses $150k+ $100k-$150k $50k-$100k <$50k Groceries 21% 47% 54% 70% Healthcare 26% 51% 55% Electric and natural gas bills 22% 44% 57% Auto insurance 17% 45% 54% Home mortgage or rent 18% 39% 56% 16 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Most voters believe Oregon’s economic growth rate is slower than the national average. They prefer it to be faster than the national average. Has Oregon’s economic growth rate been faster, about the same, or slower than the national average? Assessment vs Preference 52% 45% 42% 23% 21% 10% 4% 3% Faster About the same Slower Don't know 17 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
More than 4 in 10 voters point to high taxes and excessive regulations as the main reasons for the state’s slow economic growth. Nearly 1 in 5 blame Democratic leaders. Government Economy Society 10% High cost of living 4% Homelessness 23% High taxes 8% Lack of jobs 3% Crime 21% Excessive regulations 5% Flight from state 2% Social services 5% Housing affordability 18% Democratic leaders 3% Corporate greed 9% Government mismanagement 5% Republican leaders 18 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026 Total exceeds 100% because some voters mention more than one reason
Voters think business taxes in Oregon are too high. Views are partisan, with a majority of NAV/Other voters agreeing with Republicans that taxes are too high. Do you think taxes on businesses in Oregon are…? Democrat 28% Republican 87% NAV/Other 58% 56% 19% 16% 9% Too high About right Too low Don't know 19 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
A plurality of voters think businesses are over-regulated on issues relating to the environment, health, and workplace. Here too, a similar partisan pattern is evident. When it comes to the environment, health, and workplace, do you think businesses in Oregon are…? Democrat 21% Republican 76% NAV/Other 49% 46% 27% 15% 12% Over-regulated Regulated Under-regulated Don't know about right 20 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Nearly all voters believe businesses pass the cost of taxes and regulations onto consumers. Which is more likely when state government enacts new taxes and regulations on businesses? Businesses absorb Businesses pass these costs by along these costs to reducing their profits 3% 93% consumers in the form 3% of higher prices Don’t know 21 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Voter preference for pausing new regulations until they are proven effective has remained consistent since 2021. 76% Pause new regulations until 71% 71% 76% businesses have time to meet these requirements and we learn if they are working Business regulations in 17% 16% 13% Oregon are still too lax, and the state should act quickly to 11% put additional controls in place 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 22 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
To address deficits, voters prefer a third option when provided: reduce regulations and create incentives to drive higher growth, jobs, wages, and tax revenue. Which of these three options do you think should be the priority for state lawmakers? Reduce Reduce regulations and create Democrat 46% regulations incentives for economic growth Republican 53% 52% to increase tax revenue through higher wages or more jobs NAV/Other 56% Reduce spending to match Reduce 27% Democrat 17% available revenue spending Republican 42% Raise taxes to ensure that NAV/Other 25% programs and services remain 12% fully funded Raise Democrat 23% taxes Republican 3% Don’t know 9% NAV/Other 10% 23 DHM Research | OBI Legislative Survey | January 2026
Parent: Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback · PDF: pp. 128-155