--- kind: section source_pdf: oregon-prosperity-council-report-june-2026.pdf fingerprint: 8ac9aef8ca1b page_range: [267, 275] breadcrumb: ["Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback", "27. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant) & Robert Camarillo (Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council)"] source_links: pdf: "https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=267" raw_pages: - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0267.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0268.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0269.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0270.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0271.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0272.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0273.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0274.txt" - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0275.txt" --- # 27. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant) & Robert Camarillo (Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council) -- Part 1 of 2 ## TL;DR *(generated · confidence: high)* Joint submission from SEIU labor consultant Alice Dale and Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council Executive Secretary Robert Camarillo advocating for a 'high road' approach centered on raising per capita income for low- and moderate-income Oregonians through workforce education and sustainable public investment. Argues Oregon's economy outperforms nationally (Portland ranks 10th in prosperity), that minimum wage increases drove strong wage growth (37% for low-wage workers vs. 29% nationally since 2008), and that education is the single most powerful income lever, explaining 70% of per capita income variation across states. Criticizes the Governor's Prosperity Roadmap for omitting AI policy and failing to evaluate business tax expenditure effectiveness. **Key points** *(each cites a PDF page)*: - Portland ranks tenth overall in prosperity among large US metro areas, with seventh fastest growth in average annual wages over the past decade ([p. 271](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=271)) - Oregon low-wage workers (tenth percentile) earned 37 percent more from 2008-2025 vs. US average of 29%; median workers earned 24 percent more vs. US 16 percent ([p. 274](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=274)) - College degree attainment statistically explains seventy percent (70%) of the variation in per capita income across 50 US states ([p. 274](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=274)) - Oregon Legislature adopted 20-40-40 education vision (20% high school, 40% associate's, 40% bachelor's) as official state policy in 2011 via ORS 350.014, targeting achievement by 2025 ([p. 270](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=270)) - Higher education tuition per FTE increased from $2,749 (1980) to $9,954 per year (2021), a 3.6-fold increase after inflation adjustment ([p. 270](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=270)) - Certified apprenticeship program completion increases earnings by 49% regardless of occupational sector and demographics ([p. 275](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=275)) - Intel and Nike directly laid off more than five thousand workers in 2025, significantly impacting Portland area employment ([p. 273](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=273)) - Portland ranks 18th overall in inclusion measures among large metro areas, led by 14th fastest improvement in median earnings over the past decade ([p. 271](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=271)) Amounts: $2,749 · $9,954 per year · 3.6-fold increase · 37 percent · 29 percent · 24 percent · 16 percent · 49% · Dates/FTE: April 7, 2026 · 1980 · 2021 · 2008 · Programs: The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians · Governor Kotek's Economic Prosperity Council · Governor's Prosperity Roadmap · 20-40-40 education vision · ORS 350.014 · Earned Income Tax Credit · Parties: Alice Dale · SEIU · Robert Camarillo · Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council > **Source:** PDF [pp. 267-275](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=267) · raw: [267](../../.extracted/pages/page-0267.txt) · [268](../../.extracted/pages/page-0268.txt) · [269](../../.extracted/pages/page-0269.txt) · [270](../../.extracted/pages/page-0270.txt) · [271](../../.extracted/pages/page-0271.txt) · [272](../../.extracted/pages/page-0272.txt) · [273](../../.extracted/pages/page-0273.txt) · [274](../../.extracted/pages/page-0274.txt) · [275](../../.extracted/pages/page-0275.txt) Breadcrumb: Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback > 27. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant) & Robert Camarillo (Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council) --- Governor Kotek’s Economic Prosperity Council The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians April 7, 2026 Presented by: Alice Dale Labor Consultant, SEIU Robert Camarillo Executive Secretary, Oregon State Building & Construction Trades Council Contributors: Joe Cortright, Chuck Sheketoff, Lynn-Marie Crider, Barbara Dudley The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Executive Summary The Prosperity Council is at a crossroads: it must choose between taking the high or low road to improved prosperity. We choose the high road - A Roadmap for Oregon Prosperity that has first and foremost the goal of improving per capita income and improving the lives of low- and moderate-income Oregonians. Focusing on merely growing the economy, reducing taxes on the highest income earners or businesses, or relying on flawed business climate rankings, which are often biased and unreliable indicators of a state’s economic prosperity, miss the mark. It is the adequacy of our tax system, not Oregon’s tax ranking, that should matter most to policymakers, business leaders, and other Oregonians. A highly educated and trained workforce is the single most powerful economic lever for increasing incomes. This starts with a sustainable education funding infrastructure. From childcare to early learning and preschool programs, from K-12 to apprenticeships and vocational training and community colleges, to institutions of higher education, the high road approach to economic development relies on shoring up multiple pathways to financial stability. Notably, and to some frighteningly, the Governor’s Prosperity Roadmap was silent about artificial intelligence (AI). Oregon needs guardrails and worker-centered policies on artificial intelligence so that AI supports increased productivity while supporting job security and job upskilling, not marginalizing and replacing workers. Oregon’s net positive migration of firms shows that business relocation has little to do with alleged poor business climate. The “doom loop” narrative, widely embraced by the business community, fails to stand up to the economic data. Tax expenditures – giveaways by state and local governments that must be made up by other taxpayers or result in diminished funds for public structures such as infrastructure, education and health care – generally do not drive business decisions. Despite their aggregate high cost to taxpayers, the State has failed to seriously evaluate its tax expenditures for business recruitment to justify their costs to taxpayers and their impact on other state priorities. Just like any smart CEO, Oregon should pursue a strategy of its own and ignore the low road of doing everything other states do, just more cheaply. Oregon should build on Oregon's strengths, especially its unparalleled quality of life, and appeal to the smartest, hardest working, best-educated workers and the most innovative firms to help us build a high-skill, high-wage, high quality of life economy in the knowledge-driven world of the 21st century. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 1 of 17 Introduction The Prosperity Council is at a crossroads: it must choose between taking the high or low road to improved prosperity. A Roadmap for Oregon Prosperity needs to have as its goal improving the income and lives of all Oregonians at every income level in every part of the state, with a particular emphasis on low- and middle-income Oregonians. Focusing on merely growing the economy fails to capture the whole picture. A highly educated and trained workforce is the single most powerful economic lever for increasing incomes. This starts with a sustainable education funding infrastructure. From childcare and early learning and preschool programs to K-12 to apprenticeship and vocational training to community colleges to institutions of higher education, the high road approach to economic development relies on shoring up multiple pathways to financial stability. It’s easy to understand how some businesses are attracted to the idea of quantitative growth: more population equals more customers, more sales, and more profit. But to individual Oregonians, the size of the economy is secondary to the quality of the economy, particularly the quality of jobs. The Council also needs to consider the adverse environment created by the Trump Administration which is taking a heavy toll on the country and on Oregon more than on many other states. Oregon is 1% of the national economy but highly dependent on exports and a state which has stood up for democratic values in the face of intense national pressure to do otherwise. The five foundations that have underpinned US economic success for decades are under assault: trade, immigration, science, education and the rule of law. Having each of these foundations under assault has created a hostile economic environment for Oregon: increasing and erratic tariffs, draconian immigration enforcement, a national assault on education and science, significant threats to severely dismantle core public services (many privately provided), and a disregard for the rule of law. Oregon needs to position itself now for the day when a new administration, supportive of democratic values, and which defends and enhances these five foundations, is in office. Why The High Road? Professional economic developers know that growth for growth's sake makes little sense. Camoin & Associates, a leading economic development consultancy, reported in February 2026: “. . .[T]he field [of economic development] has shown a persistent tendency to equate activity with impact. Projects are announced, incentives negotiated, and capital investment tallied, each serving as visible markers of momentum. Far less attention is given to what follows: whether the jobs endure, whether opportunity broadens, and whether the investment meaningfully alters a community’s long-term trajectory. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 2 of 17 “Part of this dynamic reflects the frameworks that have long guided the profession. Return-on-investment models, while useful, tend to favor what can be readily counted (estimated tax revenue) over what must be cultivated over time. Political and market cycles reward visible wins, often on compressed timelines, while the deeper work of expanding opportunity and strengthening regional competitiveness unfolds more gradually. The result is a system that can favor the immediate over the enduring, even when long-term prosperity is the stated objective.” This perspective has been well-established for years, nationally and in Oregon. In 2007, the Oregon Business Council published the 2007 Oregon Business Plan which said: The Vision Is Critical: “For its companies and its economy to compete effectively in the global marketplace, Oregon must ramp its education achievement and workforce preparation to unprecedented levels – specifically, 20-40-40. Twenty percent of Oregonians should have no less than a high school diploma as their highest level of attainment; 40 percent should have an associate's degree or equivalent certification as their highest attainment; and the remaining 40 percent should have a bachelor's degree, including at least 20 percent who also have a graduate degree. Statistically, a portion of this achievement will come from newcomers, but Oregon will have to meet most of this high standard in the education it provides its own citizens. The stakes could not be clearer. Low-paying jobs will not support families or the Oregon economy. Increasingly, both low- and medium-paying manufacturing jobs, and even many service jobs, are going offshore or falling to automation. All jobs that pay well increasingly require higher levels of education and work readiness.” The Oregon Legislature adopted the 40/40/20 vision (now listed in reverse order) as official state policy in 2011. The law – ORS 350.014, still on the books – called for achieving that vision by 2025. Oregon, however, only half-heartedly worked toward meeting these goals. The Legislature scaled back on higher education funding. From 1980 through 2021, tuition per FTE increased from $2,749 to $9,954 per year, a 3.6-fold increase after adjusting for inflation. The impact is clear. . A high road strategy, which builds on Oregon’s distinctive strengths, has always stood Oregon in good stead. It was the right strategy in 2007 and it is the right strategy in 2026. We have repeatedly weathered national economic cycles, and as the US economy recovered, Oregon has outperformed the nation, not by compromising our uniqueness and commitment to quality of life and public services, but by building on those to improve our economy. The world of economic development has changed; today, firms follow talent. Because of Oregon’s relatively high level of worker skills and education, coupled with our attractiveness to smart young workers, people (and then businesses) came here and stayed; because it was different and better, not necessarily cheaper. As the state's economic development slogan of the mid-90s, devised by Oregon's local marketing geniuses Weiden+Kennedy, put it: “Things look different here.” More than a slogan, Oregon's distinctive natural beauty, and Portland's dynamic urban environment helped attract a continual flow of talented and entrepreneurial migrants that both fueled the growth of existing firms and led to the formation of many new businesses. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 3 of 17 The State of Oregon’s Economy Economic climate indicators show Oregon’s metro areas are performing well Contrary to the Portland area “doom loop” narrative that the business community has embraced, economic rankings prepared by the independent and respected Brookings Institution show that the Portland Metropolitan area and the state’s other metro areas perform well above the US average in prosperity, growth, and inclusion. Prosperity in the Brookings data is driven by three measures: productivity (which is the foundation of incomes), growth in average wages, and, improvements in the standard of living. The latest version of the Brookings Metro Monitor, released in March 2026 shows: ● Portland ranks tenth overall in prosperity among large US metro areas, led by the seventh fastest growth in average annual wages over the past decade according to Brookings tabulations. Portland also had the 12th fastest increase in productivity and the 16th largest improvement in the standard of living over that time period. Distributional issues are addressed more specifically in the "inclusion" measures including median earnings growth and the change in the poverty rate. ● Portland also ranks in the top third of large metro areas, 18th overall in measures of inclusion, led by the 14th fastest improvement in median earnings over the past decade. While “inclusion” seems to generate controversy in some contexts, it shouldn’t here: this indicator measures whether the economy works for all parts of the economic spectrum. ● Even Portland’s aggregate economic growth is faster than the average for all large US metro areas. The region’s Gross Metropolitan Product, the aggregate value of output, rose faster than the nation and all but 20 other metro areas. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 4 of 17 Oregon’s three mid-sized metropolitan areas also rank well above average in their economic performance according to the Brookings Metro Monitor. Salem, Eugene-Springfield, and Bend are among 85 US metro areas with populations between 250,000 and 500,000. Bend ranks first in prosperity and growth of these areas, Salem ranks fourth in prosperity and seventh in growth, and Eugene is twelfth for prosperity, and 30th for growth. All these cities also rank in the top fifth of all metro areas for inclusion. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 5 of 17 Aggregate growth and productivity, as measured by real output, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has not been Oregon’s problem. Portland ranks 12th in productivity, and above average in GDP growth, among large metro areas. Bend ranks first in GDP growth and productivity of mid-sized metro areas, and both Salem and Eugene-Springfield are above average. Statewide, Oregon’s GDP per worker has increased faster than in the rest of the country for the past quarter century. Oregon’s big challenge today is to make sure that this economy contributes to the prosperity of all Oregonians, particularly low- and middle-income earners. Systemic social problems persist The encouraging picture of Oregon’s economy is not intended to imply that the status quo is adequate. Oregon faces a myriad of challenges, including job losses in 2025. Two of the Portland area’s largest companies, Intel and Nike, experienced very poor years, directly laying off more than five thousand workers. Additionally, as with many states across the country, Oregon is struggling with how to assist the unhoused population, how to expand affordable housing, how to create an effective mental health care system, and how to streamline permitting. The Oregon Business Council (OBC) is correct in telling the Council that there is a need for more affordable housing, adequate funding for K-12 education, pre-school and childcare, and a streamlined regulatory system. While other groups may be grappling with solutions to these serious community problems, the Council should still consider these in its deliberations. Improving housing affordability requires building more places to live. Zoning codes for dense urban housing, ADUs and other options can maximize land use for residential purposes. Effectively dealing with drug, alcohol and mental health problems requires increased effectiveness and funding of social service agencies. Similarly, lingering effects of the pandemic have taken a toll on our reputation, with media stories about “war torn” Portland, ongoing employer telecommuting policies, and high vacancy rates in downtown Portland commercial office space. These problems are complex and the solutions are not easy, but there are reasons to be hopeful. Downtown Portland is coming back. Progress is being made in efforts to expand housing accessible to many more of our neighbors. Oregonians’ resistance to the draconian immigrant deportation policies currently in place have re-established it as a state determined to protect civil liberties. As the NYT reported on March 25, 2026, “Living in Portland, Ore.: Weird, but Life Is Good.” “Beyond its well-known quirkiness and activism, it is a city designed for leisure, with access to nature and a high quality of life. “I think Portland has a P.R. problem,” said Pamela Baker-Miller, owner of Frances May, the boutique she opened in the city’s downtown 18 years ago. “Portland is a really special place to live and it’s a really 1 amazing place to start a business.” 1 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/realestate/portland-ore-weird-but-life-is-good.html The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 6 of 17 Centering Low- & Middle-Income Oregonians The Governor’s and Legislature’s number one goal should be raising incomes for lower and middle-income Oregon residents, not simply increasing the number of jobs or the size of the economy. Oregon has been a leader in raising the minimum wage to help those at the bottom and has adopted and improved an Earned Income Tax Credit that primarily helps low-income working households with children. This provides the state with a competitive advantage as workers above the minimum wage have also benefitted by the floor being raised. Since 2005, Oregon has had among the highest minimum wages in the US, and this has played a key role in increasing average wages paid to lower wage workers. Since 2008, wages for Oregon’s low-wage and middle-wage workers have substantially outpaced those for the rest of the United States. In 2008, wages for Oregon workers earning the median hourly wage and wages for the lowest paid ten percent of workers (the tenth percentile) were roughly equal to the national average. Since then, adjusted for inflation, Oregon wages at the tenth percentile have grown much faster than for the United States as a whole (37 percent vs. 29 percent), and wages at the median have also grown faster (24 percent vs. 16 percent). Oregon Raises the Minimum Wage and Wage Growth Outpaces the National Average OREGON 2008 2025 Increase Median Worker $22.18 $27.50 24% Tenth Percentile (Low wage) $11.73 $16.03 37% UNITED STATES 2008 2025 Increase Median Worker $22.16 $25.67 16% Tenth Percentile (Low wage) $11.27 $14.56 29% Source: Economic Policy Institute, Bureau of Labor Statistics data This improvement in wages, which occurred as Oregon steadily increased minimum wages, helped improve the overall equity of the Oregon economy, compared to other states. Strategically raising the incomes of low- and middle-income households is key to making housing affordable. Building Out the Workforce A highly skilled and educated workforce is the single most powerful economic lever for increasing incomes for low- and moderate-income Oregonians The single most critical factor linked to higher incomes is increasing skills and education. States with well-educated and well-trained populations have high incomes; states with lower educational attainment have lower incomes. In fact, the fraction of the adult population with a four-year college degree statistically explains seventy percent (70%) of the variation in per capita income across the 50 states. The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 7 of 17 The following data chart ought to be top of mind for everyone who says they care about their state’s economic success. It’s this chart that shows the statistical relationship between 2 education and per capita income for the 50 US states. Education has always been a key determinant of income, and that relationship has become even stronger in the past several decades as we’ve shifted increasingly to a knowledge-based economy. This correlation applies to all forms of post-high school education and skill upgrading. For example, Abt Associates and the Urban Institute found that completion of a certified apprenticeship program increases earnings by 49%, regardless of occupational sector and 3 demographics. All education improves productivity and earnings. Not many years ago, working people moved to where the jobs are. Now, overwhelmingly, businesses move to places that have lots of talented workers and to which it is easy to attract 2 Income data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis; education attainment data from US Census Bureau, 2023 3 https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/registered-apprenticeships-can-increase-earning-not-enough- people-know The High Road to Prosperity for All Oregonians Page 8 of 17 --- Parent: [Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback](./INDEX.md) · PDF: [pp. 267-275](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=267)