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page_range: [205, 207]
breadcrumb: ["Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback", "15. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant)"]
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  raw_pages:
    - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0205.txt"
    - "../../.extracted/pages/page-0206.txt"
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# 15. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant)

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## TL;DR  *(generated · confidence: high)*

Alice Dale, SEIU Labor Consultant, advocates for a "High Road" economic strategy focused on raising per capita income and improving wages for low- and middle-income workers rather than GDP or job counts. She argues that education investment (especially fulfilling Oregon's 40/40/20 vision) and quality of life are the primary economic drivers, while tax incentives are ineffective and wasteful. Dale cites evidence that companies now locate based on workforce quality, not tax breaks, and recommends prioritizing education, minimum wage leadership, and quality-of-life infrastructure over cost-cutting competition.

**Key points** *(each cites a PDF page)*:

- College attainment explains ~70% of income variation across states, more than any other factor ([p. 205](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=205))
- Oregon's 40/40/20 vision (40% bachelor's, 40% associate's, 20% high school diploma) was adopted into law (ORS 350.014) in 2011 but remains unfulfilled, particularly for people of color ([p. 205](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=205))
- Upjohn Institute research: up to 90% of tax incentives go to companies that would have located anyway ([p. 206](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=206))
- Business location decisions have reversed—companies now go where talented workers are; workforce is the #1 location factor ([p. 206](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=206))
- Oregon ranks 11th in net inbound business migration (2021), showing business relocation is a small growth factor compared to new firm formation ([p. 206](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=206))
- Recovery from 1979-1982 downturn (when 10% of Oregon jobs disappeared) was built on quality of life and innovation, not subsidies ([p. 206](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=206))
- College-educated 25-34 year-olds grew five times faster in Portland than in other large metros, 1990-2000 ([p. 207](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=207))
- Since 2005, Oregon has maintained among the highest minimum wages in the US; since 2008, Oregon 10th-percentile wages rose 37% vs. US +29% ([p. 207](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=207))

Amounts: ~70% · 90% · 11th · 10% · 40/40/20 · +37% · +29% · +24% · Dates/FTE: 2005 · 2007 · 2008 · 2011 · Programs: 40/40/20 vision · Oregon Business Plan · ORS 350.014 · Enterprise Zone · High Road strategy · Parties: Alice Dale · SEIU · Business Oregon · Upjohn Institute

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> **Source:** PDF [pp. 205-207](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=205) · raw: [205](../../.extracted/pages/page-0205.txt) · [206](../../.extracted/pages/page-0206.txt) · [207](../../.extracted/pages/page-0207.txt)

Breadcrumb: Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback > 15. Alice Dale (SEIU Labor Consultant)

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Oregon's High Road Economic Strategy
Outline
Qs- Does the Council have clear agreement on what constitutes economic
prosperity? Is it focused on making life better for Oregonians?
Take the High Road: Quality Over Quantity
1. Goal: Raise per capita income for all Oregonians — not total GDP or job count
1.1 Per capita income is the best single measure of economic success
1.2 Must be paired with measures of distribution — especially wages at the bottom and middle
2. Two strategies: High Road vs. Low Road
2.1 High road: high skills, high wages, high productivity, high innovation
2.2. High road: helping businesses be more productive and grow vs. luring them in through tax
breaks (support quality education and training, great quality of life, predicable and efficient
regulation (without surrendering health, safety and environmental goals)
2.3 Low road: cut taxes, slash services, compete on cost with Alabama, India, Mexico
2.4 Low road is a trap — grows the economy temporarily but doesn't improve lives; undermines
assets needed for long-run growth
Education: The Single Most Powerful Economic Lever
1. College attainment explains ~70% of income variation across states
1.1 No other factor comes close
1.2 Nobel economist Philippe Aghion: states that invest in higher education saw significantly
faster growth
2. Oregon's unrealized 40/40/20 vision
2.1 Oregon Business Plan (2007): 40% bachelor's degree, 40% associate's degree, 20% high
school diploma (“Low-paying jobs will not support families or the Oregon economy…All jobs
that pay well increasingly require higher levels of education and work readiness.”)
2.2 Oregon Legislature adopted the 40/40/20 vision as official state policy in 2011 (ORS 350.014)
2.3 Oregon is falling short, especially for people of color
2.4 Incomes would be higher today had we achieved this goal
3. Continuum of education investments
3.1 Pre-K/Preschool for All: high returns especially for disadvantaged kids; attracts young
families; provides affordability for low- and middle-income families
3.2 Training/Apprenticeship:
Expand high school and workplace “earn to learn” programs
Reskilling and continuous upskilling to embrace AI and other industry shocks
3.3 Challenges facing the American workforce require a talent strategy that focuses on
education and training (Bipartisan Policy Center, “A Nation at Risk to A Nation at Work,”
2026)
1

Tax Incentives: Ineffective, Wasteful, and Self-Serving
1. The evidence: incentives mostly don't work
1.1 Upjohn Institute (Bartik): Up to 90% of incentives go to companies that would have located
there anyway
1.2 Business Oregon's consultants never evaluated whether tax breaks actually changed firm
decisions
1.3 Virginia study of single sales factor: "no evidence that sales factor apportionment stimulates
firm job creation"
2. Incentives reward bad behavior
2.1 Companies that threaten to leave get rewarded; those that invest and pay taxes get nothing
2.2 Enterprise Zone expansion (3–5 yr → 13 yr) invites gaming: companies postpone decisions
to qualify for larger breaks
2.3 Economic developers have no incentive not to give away maximum tax benefits
3. CEO advice on tax policy is self-serving, not sound
3.1 Smart CEOs pursue high-value, differentiated strategies — they don't compete on lowest cost
3.2 Oregon cannot out-cheap Alabama, Mississippi, India, or Mexico, and will be poorer if it tries
4. Business climate rankings are misleading
4.1 Negatively correlated with wages and quality of life
4.2 They measure how bad conditions are for workers, not how strong the economy is
Workforce Quality Attracts Business — Not the Other Way Around
1. Business location logic has reversed
1.1 Companies now go where talented workers are; workforce is the #1 location factor
1.2 Building quality of life draws workers and the innovative firms that want to hire them
1.3 Create Innovation Centers, encourage public-private funding – play to Oregon’s strengths
1.4. Foster small and medium sized high-quality businesses in niche markets (Mittelstand)
2. Business migration is a small factor in state economic growth
2.1 BLS data: very few firms ever move between states
2.2 Oregon ranks 11th in net inbound business migration (2021 data)
2.3 New firm formation and organic growth — not relocation — drive state economies
3. Firms chasing subsidies are often weaker firms, and have negative effects
3.1 Companies that compete purely on cost are vulnerable to displacement by more innovative
competitors
3.2 Example: TikTok data center tax breaks offer no spinoffs; consume land, water, and
electricity; drive up energy prices
Oregon's High Road Has Worked Before
1. The 1980s catastrophe and recovery
1.1 1979–1982: 10% of Oregon jobs disappeared; one of the two hardest-hit states nationally
1.2 Lost much of the timber industry and the state's largest private employer (Tektronix)
1.3 Recovery built on quality of life and innovation — not subsidies
2

1.4 Oregon outpaced US job growth from 1982–2000; largely avoided the 1990–91 recession
2. Quality of life is a talent magnet
2.1 "Things look different here" — Wieden+Kennedy slogan of the mid-1990s
2.2 1990–2000: college-educated 25- to 34-year-olds grew five times faster in Portland than in
other large metros
2.3 Tom McCall: Oregon should be "demure and lovely" — not a hungry hussy throwing itself at
every "stinking smokestack"
Oregon's Wage Record: High Road Policies Deliver
1. Minimum wage leadership
1.1 Since 2005, Oregon has had among the highest minimum wages in the US
1.2 Research shows minimum wages raise earnings without reducing aggregate employment;
also drive up worker productivity
2. Since 2008, Oregon wages have outpaced the US for low- and middle-income workers
2.1 10th percentile wages: Oregon +37% vs. US +29% (inflation-adjusted)
2.2 Median wages: Oregon +24% vs. US +16% (inflation-adjusted)
Recommendations: Follow Through on the High Road
1. Set the right goal: per capita income growth, not GDP or job counts;
make wages for low- and middle-income workers an explicit target
2. Fully implement the 40/40/20 vision already adopted into law
3. Invest in education at every level (Pre-K through HEd and ongoing upskilling)
4. Build quality of life to attract and retain talented workers (affordable housing, healthcare,
childcare, public transportation)
5. Resist expanding tax incentive programs without rigorous evaluation that they benefit
Oregon taxpayers and are worth the trade-off of other budget priorities
6. Focus on distinctive Oregon strengths (Porter's advice from 2007 Oregon Business Plan);
include small- and medium-sized businesses
7. Develop an AI strategy that augments worker productivity rather than replaces workers;
promotes programs that provide ongoing AI upskilling
3.11.2026.1
3

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Parent: [Appendix E: Submissions & Feedback](./INDEX.md) · PDF: [pp. 205-207](https://www.oregon.gov/gov/Documents/Oregon%20Prosperity%20Council%20Report_June%202026.pdf#page=205)